The month of December started with trading of the March 23 position (KCH23) at 169. Throughout the month, trading remained in the range of 157-173, with the majority of the time in the 160's. See chart below for illustration of the trading range.
On the supply side, ICE inventories began to rebound over the month of December from 23 year low inventories of the certified physical stocks that provide the backbone of the C market. Global certified lots rose from a 23 year low of 382,000 to 814,000, signifying an end to the "certified crisis" which traders were watching closely. This was also a positive sign of abundant global coffees supplies, which is bearish to market prices.
In Brazil, the new year welcomed in heavy rains in Minas Gerais and new President Luna. The rains were 193% of historical average and eased concerns of drought. The inauguration of President Luna also brought with it a drop in value of the Brazilian Real, which tends to be bearish to coffee prices since farmers are able to sell their coffee and receive more domestic currency after currency exchange.
On January 4, the Wall Street Journal reported that container spot rates would continue to fall over the 2023 year as demand for shipping decreased and the large shipping companies began competing for business. It is yet to be seen how much this will impact shipping lines between Central America and U.S. ports, as much of the data is based on trans pacific shipping routes from China.
Internal differentials have been historically high in Brazil, as producers have been hesitant to sell in the market after the price drop. In Central America, labor shortages have kept internal differentials high. Additionally, many farms did not apply fertilizers at typical levels, which will result in a reduced yield (and subsequently higher prices). Colombia has been the outlier with internal differentials coming down from previous highs. While the FNC has reported lower exports and reduced expected yield, producers seem eager to sell and are bringing supply to the market.
Spot trading is currently occurring in March 23 (KCZ23). First notice day for March is February 17, at which point all fixations on KCH23 will need to be finalized and spot pricing will be against May (KCK23).
This "candlestick" chart shows the rapid market drop from September-October, and then the sustained range of trading from November-January.
You can learn more about candlestick charts on this excellent article by Investopedia.
FTO Rwanda Hingakawa Cooperative Arrives!
In the aftermath of civil war and genocide, the women of the Gakenke District in Rwanda came together to reconcile, heal, and grow coffee.
The word "Hingakawa" translates to "Let's Grow Coffee". While the lands may hold a history of trauma, today they bear fruit of years of dedication by women in the cooperative. The coffee is a washed Bourbon and FTO certified.
Click here to request a fresh arrival sample of this coffee, or contact your sales executive for a sample and pricing.